Susan Thornton: US-China Relations: Mistakes and Missed Opportunities

作者：Susan Thornton  来源：中美印象

[Editorial note: These are remarks made by Susan Thornton at the China-US Think Tank and Media Forum on July 9 2020.]
     -I’ve been involved with U.S.-China relations over the last 20 years, not as long as many of you.

-But even in this short period of time, I have seen the U.S. and China come together and do important things for the world on non-proliferation efforts, environmental efforts, public health efforts, global economic growth, technological advancement and more.

-Relations between the U.S. and China have always been complicated.  As Chinese colleagues often say, “characterized by many twists and turns.”  We should not let revisionist narratives of starry-eyed engagement for the last 40 years stand.  We have worked hard to maintain a constructive relationship because it served both our peoples and the world.  It was not easy and it took visionary statesmanship.

-Unfortunately, though, we have missed many opportunities to make this relationship produce even more dividends for ourselves and the world.  And these missed opportunities cause great frustration.

-Why couldn’t the U.S. and China have done more together to counter trans-national terrorism after 9/11?  Why haven’t the US and China worked more effectively together to bring North Korea into the community of nations? Why didn’t the U.S. and China work together on meeting infrastructure needs in developing countries?  Why didn’t we work together on standards for digital data flows or cooperate on space exploration?  Our two militaries are more estranged than the US and Soviet militaries during the Cold War and are now carrying out large exercises simultaneously in the South China Sea.  And perhaps most crucially, why has the conversation about our economic relationship gone so off track?

-Each of these issues and many more have their histories and complexities, and I am not interested in assigning blame.  But I think we can identify points along the way where, perhaps because of domestic political considerations, timing, exogenous events or misperceptions, opportunities to get a productive long-term frame for the relationship were missed. 

-And we cannot overstate the importance of narrative in US-China relations.  In order to keep relations that are so complex, interconnected and competitive from descending into hostility, we need to have a story, a big picture, an overarching common direction. 

-I’ll mention here two such missed opportunities.

-First, in the post-9/11 period, George W. Bush was looking to make China more of a partner on the global stage, and Robert Zoellick issued a call for the “responsible stakeholder” relationship. 

-Maybe China did not understand that this was a sincere effort on the part of the U.S. to help effect a change in the international system toward a more multipolar arrangement.  Maybe China thought it was not ready, did not want to expend energy that could be directed domestically on global public goods.  In any case, the invitation seemed to fall flat.

-Then, following Xi Jinping’s elevation as Chairman of the CCP, when he and President Obama met at Sunnylands in 2013, there was a clear effort to work toward a relationship that would be cooperative and avoid conflict in “a new type of major power relations.” 

-But this effort was soon also subsumed by events, misperceptions and, what many in the US felt was a change in China’s approach to relations with the US. 

-In both cases, it seemed that entrenched suspicions in the two governments overwhelmed any efforts by leaders toward a more productive path.

-This perhaps demonstrates just how important it is that leaders in both countries state clearly the direction that they want this relationship to go in and the objectives that their governments are to work toward.

-Amid insecurity and difficulties in both countries, such leadership has been lacking.

-Yet, the logic of cooperation is obvious, as the world currently faces the COVID-19 pandemic. 

-I am optimistic and like to think about how to address the future rather than looking for the mistakes of the past.  In this case, though, I hope that leadership in both countries might not be too proud to identify opportunities to right the wrongs of the past. 

来源时间：2020/7/18   发布时间：2020/7/9

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