快报：福山：俄罗斯必败无疑

作者：福山 文 乔桥 编译  来源：中美印象

【编者按：曾在美国国务院政策研究室供职的知名学者佛朗西斯·福山3月10日在美国网站“美国目的”（https://www.americanpurpose.com）对俄乌战争的结果和后果做了大胆的预测。本站对他的预测做了编译供读者分享。】

1、俄罗斯在乌克兰将面临彻底的失败。俄罗斯的战争计划是无能的，它的决策人员错误地认为，乌克兰人民会对俄军夹道相迎，乌克兰的武装力量会在俄军入侵之后做鸟兽散。俄罗斯官兵进入乌克兰时带着在基辅阅兵的礼服而不是干粮和弹药。普京已经在乌克兰部署了自己几乎全部的武装力量，俄军已无援军可言。俄罗斯的入侵部队大都在乌克兰各个城市之外，不但面临巨大供给困难，还经常被乌克兰守军困扰。

2、俄军的失败将会是突然的和灾难性的，不会是缓慢地因消耗而兵败。俄军既不能被供给，也不能撤离，士气也将低迷。至少北部俄军情况如此，南部俄军处境略好，但北部溃败，南部很难坚持。

3、在俄军溃败之前不会有解决战争的外交方式。因为俄乌两军已经遭受的损失，双方不可能就任何可能的妥协方案达成共识。

4、俄乌战争再次证明联合国安理会毫无用处可言。联合国唯一有用的做法是代表大会的投票，它帮助世界辨认哪些是助纣为虐或推卸责任的国家。

5、拜登政府不设置非飞行区和禁止波兰向乌克兰提供米格战机的决定是正确的。他们在情绪高昂的时候保持了头脑清醒。让乌克兰击败俄军是最好的结果，这样莫斯科不能指责北约攻击了俄军，也避免了战争的升级。波兰的米格战机并不能向乌军提供更多的战斗力，对乌军更重要的是标枪反坦克导弹，毒刺防空导弹，远程无人机，医疗设备，通讯器材和情报分享。

6、乌克兰付出的代价自然巨大无比。但造成损失的是俄军的火箭和炮击，波兰的米格战机和非飞行区对此都不会又任何影响。能制止俄军屠杀的唯一路径是打败俄罗斯的地面部队。

7、俄军战败，普京也将下台。他受支持是因为大家知道他是所谓强人。一旦实事证明他昏庸无能并被剥夺了强势的能力，他会一无所有。

8、俄罗斯的侵略已经对全球各地的民粹主义领袖造成了巨大的打击，其中包括意大利的萨尔维尼（Matteo Salvini）、巴西的博尔索纳罗（Jair Bolsonaro）、法国的哲莫（Éric Zemmour）和乐潘（Marine Le Pen）及匈牙利的奥尔班（Viktor Orbán）。当然，也包括美国的特朗普。他们在战前都大多支持普京，战争的政治暴露了他们威权的本质。

9、中国将会从俄乌战争中汲取巨大的教训……

10、对台湾也是一样……

11、土耳其的无人机会成为畅销武器。

12、俄罗斯的失败可能会促成“自由的新生”，协助我们摆脱全球民主进入萧条的困境。因为乌克兰一群人的勇敢，1989精神会继续活在我们中间。

英文原文

1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.

3. There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.

4. The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors.

5. The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they’ve kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.

6. The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, which neither MiGs nor a no-fly zone can do much about. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground.

7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?

8. The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.

9. The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan.

10. Hopefully Taiwan itself will wake up as to the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done, and restore conscription. Let’s not be prematurely defeatist.

11. Turkish drones will become bestsellers.

12. A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.

来源时间：2022/3/13   发布时间：2022/3/13

旧文章ID：27375